ACI Winter Endurance Monitor

Core Metrics

W24

W72

W168

A · DP

Demand
Pressure

—

— —

Normal

B · DC

Domestic
Coverage

—

— —

Normal

C · NIR

Net Import
Reliance

—

— —

Normal

D · SP

Stress
Persistence

—

— W168-ikkuna

Normal

E · EPP

Endurance
Pressure

—

DC: 0.30 · SP: 0.30 DP: 0.20 · NIR: 0.20

Normal

Aikasarjat — W72

MW · TUNTIDATAN KELLUVA IKKUNA

Kulutus · Kotimainen tuotanto · Import-gap Grey bands = stress hours

Kulutus

Kotimainen tuotanto

Import-gap

Stress Persistence

W24

—

W72

—

W168

—

SP_168 threshold zones

Normal< 15%

Tight15–30%

Elevated30–50%

BP-like> 50%

Endurance Pressure Proxy — EPP (W168) · historiatrendi Synteettinen indeksi [0–1] · DC 0.30 · SP 0.30 · DP 0.20 · NIR 0.20

Instrumentin rajaukset

This instrument is diagnostic, not operational and not an official alert.

Posture classification does not predict individual power outages.

EPP is a synthetic index — component values are the primary source for interpretation.

Stability ≠ endurance. Momentary balance does not imply multi-day endurance.

MW ≠ MWh. Hetkellinen teho ei yksin ratkaise Black Period -ongelmaa.

Risk transfer is a structural observation, not a moral judgement about individual actors.

Viitteet

WP-001Capacity vs. Duration — Black Period 168h stress window
DA-001Early warning logic — "Concern trending toward Danger"
DA-003Layer divergence — L1–L2 vs. L3 endurance gap
WP-008Continuous load allocation and endurance pressure
TN-001PPA structure and residual risk transfer