OGAS2 — System Health Simulator

§ 01System Health Index

SHI is a composite index (0–100) expressing overall resilience across four stress layers, derived from WP-004's recovery capacity variables: Variation (I), Redundancy (II), Recovery Time (III). Thresholds: GREEN ≥75 · YELLOW ≥58 · ORANGE ≥40 · RED <40.

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Snapshot

2026-04

Reference period for current layer values

Compound stress

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Progressive coupling penalty when S_ENERGY and R_PUBLIC are simultaneously elevated (WP-004)

System phase

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STABLE · STRAIN · FRAGILE · CASCADE — narrative regime indicator

Avg layer stress

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Unweighted mean across four layers (0–100)

Avg buffer

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Mean lock value — institutional and physical reserve capacity

Compound Stress Active — — pts penalty

S_ENERGY and R_PUBLIC are simultaneously elevated. Energy costs require public compensation, which narrows fiscal margins, which reduces capacity to buffer further energy shocks. Penalty is progressive: (SE−50)·(RP−50)/2500 · 18. ACI WP-004.

Tipping Point Risk — —

§ 02Stress Layers & Buffers

Each layer represents a structural stress dimension. Stress (0–100): higher is worse. Buffer (lock): reserve capacity — institutional, physical, fiscal — that absorbs shocks. Buffers above 65 provide non-linear protection. Feedback loops: E_REAL>58 incrementally raises R_PUBLIC; R_PUBLIC>60 incrementally raises E_REAL.

Shock:

§ 03Intervention Matrix

Interventions derived from WP-013 Appendix 1 v1.1 and SP-002 (SGFA 4.0). Select any combination to model joint effect. Profile: IMMEDIATE = full effect at lead; RAMP = linear over 12 months; DELAYED = activates at lead+6.

§ 04Trajectory Forecast & Backtest

Structural drift continues at estimated rates (S_ENERGY +0.4/mo, R_PUBLIC +0.35/mo, buffers declining). Feedback loops active per §02. Intervention effects applied at stated lead times and profiles.

No action

With selected interventions

Horizon	No action SHI	State	MC range P10–P90	CASCADE risk	With actions SHI	State	Δ

Model basis: ACI WP-004 · Coupling: progressive, max −18 pts · Drift rates: estimated from public Finnish energy and fiscal data · Intervention parameters: WP-013 Appendix 1 v1.1, SP-002 SGFA 4.0 · Source: aethercontinuity.org