Allocating scarce transmission capacity without displacing system-valuable loads
Fingrid has restricted new connections above 10 MW in several Southern Finland areas until early 2027 due to transmission capacity saturation. Simultaneously, data centres are competing for hundreds of megawatts of 24/7 flat load. This memo proposes a two-track connection mechanism: flexible loads (industry, SGFA nodes, electrolysis, CHP replacements) receive priority access via the standard process; inflexible loads (data centres with 24/7 flat profiles) compete within a capped annual quota via auction. The auction produces a price signal — inflexibility has a cost — and directs proceeds to Fingrid's grid investment fund. The mechanism requires no new legislation; it builds on the flexible connection agreement framework in force since February 2026.
Fingrid's transmission grid in Southern Finland is approaching saturation. New connections above 10 MW have been restricted in multiple areas until early 2027. The restriction reflects both current load growth and the pipeline of committed data centre investments — 17 projects with investment decisions taken, aggregate capacity potentially exceeding 2,200 MW by 2030.
The connection queue does not distinguish between load types. A 500 MW data centre and a 50 MW adjustable electrolyser queue under the same rules. This is a governance failure: the allocation mechanism does not price flexibility, and no institution guides applicants toward the system-valuable mix.
Inflexible loads — data centres running 24/7 flat profiles — occupy transmission capacity permanently. They do not offer frequency reserves, do not shift consumption in response to price signals, and do not support the grid's balancing needs during high-stress periods. Their net fiscal contribution is, according to Verohallinto Director General Heikura (May 2026), presently negative for the largest operators.
Flexible loads — industrial processes that can shift timing, electrolysers that absorb surplus, SGFA-type nodes that simultaneously produce district heat and grid reserves, CHP replacements — deliver system value beyond their electricity consumption. They reduce the compound risk described in TN-009: the coincidence of cold, still, dry conditions with declining domestic firm capacity.
Flexible and inflexible loads compete for the same connection capacity under rules that treat them identically. This systematically displaces system-valuable loads in favour of high-capital, infrastructure-light operators. The result is consistent with SM-010's coordination failure diagnosis: individually rational, systemically costly.
Track 1 — Flexible loads: Standard connection process, priority access. A load qualifies as flexible if it commits to Fingrid's flexible connection agreement terms: acceptance of capacity limitation during defined stress periods, participation in reserve markets, or load shifting responsive to price signals. This definition is already in regulation (Energiavirasto flexible connection agreement rules, in force 1 February 2026).
Track 2 — Inflexible loads: Capped annual quota per region, allocated via auction. A load is inflexible if it does not commit to flexible connection terms. Data centres with 24/7 flat profiles are the primary category. Within the quota, inflexible loads compete by price: bidders submit an annual premium per MW on the standard connection fee. The highest premium per MW secures the connection; the premium is paid annually and allocated to Fingrid's grid development fund. The auction clearing price is capped at the estimated avoided grid investment cost per MW — beyond that threshold, the connection is deferred to the next expansion phase rather than priced out of reach. This ceiling prevents strategic overbidding while preserving the incentive to offer flexibility instead.
The flexible connection agreement framework (Sähkömarkkinalaki §20b–20c, Energiavirasto rules effective 1 February 2026) already defines two categories: temporarily flexible (pending grid development) and permanently flexible (with Energiavirasto permit). An inflexible load is one that declines to enter either category.
No new definition is needed. The mechanism inverts the existing rule: flexible connection agreement = Track 1. No flexible connection agreement = Track 2. This is implementable through Fingrid's existing connection terms without legislative change.
The quota must be calibrated to avoid two failure modes:
Proposed approach: the quota is dynamic and regional, calibrated annually by Fingrid against three inputs:
Fingrid projects 200 MW of new connection capacity available in Southern Finland in 2027. Flexible load queue: 150 MW (industrial electrolysis, one SGFA-candidate CHP replacement, two industrial loads with reserve agreements). These receive connection priority. Remaining capacity: 50 MW.
Inflexible quota: 50 MW (25% of new capacity, after flexible queue served). Five data centres are queuing, each requesting 50–100 MW. They compete in an auction. Highest bidder secures the 50 MW connection. Auction proceeds (estimated €5–15M depending on competition) are directed to Fingrid's investment fund. The four unsuccessful bidders queue for next year's auction or reconsider offering flexibility.
Result: flexible loads are not displaced. Data centres pay for inflexibility. Grid investment is partially self-financing from inflexibility premium.
Initial calibration suggestion: 10–20% of new connection capacity per region allocated to inflexible quota. Review annually. Provide data centres with 3–5 year forward visibility on quota trajectory to support their investment planning.
| Element | Existing regulation | SM-011 addition |
|---|---|---|
| Flexible connection agreements | Sähkömarkkinalaki §20b–20c; Energiavirasto rules, 1 Feb 2026 | Used as Track 1/Track 2 dividing line — no new definition needed |
| Connection capacity constraints | Fingrid announcement (10 MW restriction to 2027) | Factual basis for the mechanism — constraint already exists |
| Fingrid's connection pricing authority | Sähkömarkkinalaki, Energiavirasto pricing guidelines | Auction operates within existing connection pricing framework |
| Inflexible quota cap | Not in regulation | New element — requires Fingrid board decision, not legislation |
| Auction mechanism | Not in regulation | New element — Fingrid board decision, with TEM guidance if needed |
| Proceeds to investment fund | Not formalised | New element — requires Fingrid board decision |
SM-011 does not require new legislation. The flexible connection agreement infrastructure is in place. The remaining elements — quota, auction, and proceeds allocation — are within Fingrid's operational and governance authority. TEM can reinforce through a non-binding recommendation without initiating a legislative process.
1. Fingrid board decision. Fingrid adopts a connection allocation policy that: (a) confirms flexible connection agreement commitment as the criterion for Track 1 priority; (b) establishes an annual inflexible quota per region; (c) implements a sealed-bid or ascending auction within the quota; (d) directs auction proceeds to a dedicated grid investment fund.
2. TEM guidance. TEM issues a recommendation supporting Fingrid's policy, signalling that inflexibility pricing is consistent with national energy policy objectives. No legislation required.
3. Transparency. Fingrid publishes annually: the quota by region, auction clearing prices, queue lengths by load category, and proceeds directed to investment. This creates market-facing accountability and allows data centre investors to plan.
4. Pilot year. Implement in one region (Southern Finland) for 2027, then evaluate before national rollout.
Liittymäkapasiteetin kohdentamisongelma on tunnistettu laajemmin: joustamattomat kuormat syrjäyttävät systemaattisesti joustavia liittyjiä, koska nykyinen prosessi ei hinnoittele joustavuutta. Tämä analyysi ehdottaa konkreettisen institutionaalisen vastauksen olemassa olevan sääntelyn varassa.
Säädettävät ja useita palveluja tuottavat kuormat — kaukolämpöä tuottava CHP-retrofit yhdistettynä reservimarkkinaosallistumiseen tai sähköpolttoainetuotantoon — ovat juuri se kapasiteettikerros, jonka liittyminen tuottaa sähköjärjestelmälle eniten arvoa. Nämä eivät saa joutua kilpailemaan 24/7-tasaisesta datakeskuskuormasta.
Sähköjärjestelmän kriittisin haavoittuvuus on olosuhteiden yhteisvaikutus: kylmä, tyyni ja kuiva sää yhtä aikaa laskevan kotimaisen varmatuotantokapasiteetin kanssa. Joustavuuskiintiö suojaa juuri ne kuormat, jotka kykenevät reagoimaan tällaisiin tilanteisiin.
SE1→FI-siirtoyhteyden reaaliaikainen käyttöaste (TRR) on luonteva dynaamisen kiintiön kalibrointiparametri: kun siirtokapasiteetti lähestyy saturaatiota, joustamaton kiintiö tiukkenee automaattisesti.
Track 1 -kelpoisuuden arvioinnissa voidaan hyödyntää mitattavia joustavuusindikaattoreita: reservimarkkinaosallistuminen, kysyntäjousto hintasignaaleihin ja hukkalämmön hyödyntäminen ovat konkreettisia kriteerejä, jotka Fingrid voi sisällyttää liittymissopimuksen ehtoihin.
SM-010 — Financing Instruments and Energy Clusters · WP-019 — SGFA Retrofit Pathways · WP-018 — Integration Quality Score · TN-009 — Compound Risk Analysis · WEM — Winter Endurance Monitor §12 · Sähkömarkkinalaki §20b–20c · Energiavirasto, Joustavat liittymissopimukset, 1 Feb 2026