Combined heat and power (CHP) has been Finland's only thermally-correlated supply buffer — its output peaks precisely when heating demand and electricity consumption are highest during cold winter periods. WP-015 §3 and §6 identify the structural risk: CHP capacity is being phased out under EU ETS and Fit-for-55 frameworks without equivalent replacement dispatchable capacity. This risk compounds with Shift I (data centre rigid load) and Shift III (market residualisation) to reduce systemic degrees of freedom.
| Date | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Government decides coal ban from 2029; €90M incentive package for early phase-out. | Finnish Government |
| 2020–2022 | CHP share of Finnish production ~36% (2022). WEM backtest baseline. | ACI / Fingrid |
| 2024-03 | Fortum warns: CHP exiting market; Finland risks losing billion-euro investments. | Fortum |
| 2024 | Electric boiler heat production reaches 1540 GWh. | KAMK / Energiateollisuus |
| 2024-Q2 | Suomenoja CHP (279 MWe) decommissioned. | Helen |
| 2025-04-01 | Salmisaari coal CHP (160 MWe / 300 MWth) closed — last active coal power plant in Finland. Replaced by 2×100 MW electric boilers and 153 MW wood pellet plant. | Helen / Reuters |
| 2025-Q3 | Aurora Line (700 MW) commissioned, improves import from SE1. | Fingrid |
| 2025 | District heating emissions fall 38%; electric boiler share doubles to 8%. | Energiateollisuus |
| 2026-01 | Energiateollisuus reports CHP electricity capacity at 2500 MW (~1/6 of peak demand day). | Energiateollisuus |
| 2026-02 | "CHP has lost competitiveness"; district heating electrification accelerates. | Energiauutiset |
| 2026-04 | Fingrid winter report notes Aurora Line improved adequacy; no mention of CHP gap. | Fingrid |
| Period | CHP share of production | CHP capacity (MWe) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | 36.4% | ~3000 | Pre-OL3, pre-energy crisis baseline |
| 2022-08 | 17.4% | — | Crisis peak, low CHP due to fuel prices |
| 2023-01 | 34.0% | — | Post-crisis recovery |
| 2024-01 | 25.8% | — | OL3 online; Suomenoja retired |
| 2024-12 | 25.5% | — | Salmisaari still operational |
| 2025-04 | — | ~2500 | Salmisaari closed; Energiateollisuus figure |
| 2026-04 (WEM) | 36.7% W24 / 37.1% W168 | — | High due to cold April, not capacity recovery |
CHP share fell from ~36% (2022) to ~25% (2024–2025). The high share in April 2026 reflects seasonal cold weather, not increased capacity — the underlying trend is downward.
| Project | Type | Capacity | Replaces CHP electricity? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salmisaari electric boilers | Electric boiler | 2×100 MW thermal | No — adds electricity demand |
| Salmisaari wood pellet plant | Thermal only | 153 MW thermal | No — heat only |
| Data centre flexibility mechanism | Demand response | 800 MW target by 2030 | No — reduces demand, not dispatchable supply |
| Fingrid capacity mechanism | Market-wide capacity | Under study | Conditional — only if energy-dimensioned; 2031 proposal |
Critical observation: All replacement investments to date are thermal-side solutions. They address the heat gap left by CHP closure, but increase electricity demand during winter peaks. No new dispatchable electricity generation capacity has been announced to replace the lost CHP electricity output.
| Identified need | Policy / investment timeline | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Thermally-correlated firm electricity capacity WP-015 §3 |
CHP phase-out accelerating. Coal ban 2029. No replacement electricity generation announced. | Widening — ~500 MWe retired 2024–2025; 0 MWe new dispatchable capacity |
| Energy-dimensioned replacement (72h+) WP-001 §3 |
Electric boilers add load; batteries are fast but not energy-dimensioned. No energy reserve framework. | Design gap — no instrument addresses multi-day energy dimension |
| Policy instrument to ensure replacement | €90M incentive for early coal exit (2018) accelerated phase-out. No equivalent instrument for replacement capacity. | Asymmetric policy — exit incentivised; entry not secured |
| Operational recognition | Fingrid winter report notes Aurora Line benefit; no mention of CHP gap or replacement need. | Monitoring gap — system operator not publicly tracking CHP vs. replacement balance |
The structural gap documented in this log has a demonstrated Nordic response architecture. Stockholm Exergi — the municipally owned energy company of Stockholm — made its final investment decision in March 2025 to build a BECCS facility at its Värtaverket biomass-fired CHP plant, operational 2028. The facility captures 800,000 tonnes of biogenic CO₂ annually using the existing CHP flue gas stream, adding a third revenue layer (carbon credits) to the existing CHP node.
The financing stack: EU Innovation Fund (€180M), EIB loan (€260M), Swedish Energy Agency reverse auction (SEK 20 billion over 15 years), voluntary carbon market offtake (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, JPMorgan Chase). Total investment SEK 13 billion. The node remains a district heat and electricity supplier — CHP function is preserved, not replaced.
Active. This log will be updated upon: announced retirements of CHP capacity, investment decisions in new dispatchable electricity generation, policy instruments addressing CHP replacement, or Fingrid/TEM assessments explicitly addressing the CHP gap.
When the coal ban takes effect (2029) and no replacement firm capacity is in place, this log will document the resulting structural gap.