DRD-09 — Dynamic Resilience Index

Integrating C2-CI · MRI · ORM · CDSI into a composite national resilience metric

Abstract. DRD-09 introduces the Dynamic Resilience Index (DRI) — a composite metric integrating four previously separate indices: C2 Cohesion Index (C2-CI, DRD-03/06), Mobility Resilience Index (MRI, DRD-08 §02c), Operational Readiness Multiplier (ORM, CN-014/015), and Cross-Domain Synergy Index (CDSI, CN-015). DRI measures not static defence capacity but dynamic capability — the system's ability to absorb, adapt and recover under operational stress. The key structural finding: static resilience (E, D, platform inventory) is necessary but insufficient. ORM and CDSI — the dynamic, operationally-derived components — determine whether static capacity can be activated under pressure.

§ 01

Four Component Indices

Index	Measures	Range	Source
C2-CI	Command-and-control cohesion under operational stress (Decision Lag, Autonomy Quality, Resynchronisation)	0–1	DRD-03 · DRD-06
MRI	Mobility resilience: R_eff = √(E·D)·f(M) — energy, data and mobile capability	0–1	DRD-08 §02–02c
ORM	Operational Readiness Multiplier: fraction of crew readiness derived from real operations vs. exercises `ORM = real_tasks / (real_tasks + exercise_tasks)`	0–1	CN-014 · CN-015
CDSI	Cross-Domain Synergy Index: depth of operational integration between Defence Forces, Border Guard and FinnHEMS	0–1	CN-015 · CN-016

§ 02

DRI Composite Formula

DRI is a multiplicative composite — not additive. A system with high static capacity (MRI) but low operational readiness (ORM ≈ 0) cannot activate that capacity under stress. The indices multiply rather than compensate:

DRI = C2-CI · MRI · √(ORM · CDSI)

The geometric mean of ORM and CDSI captures their joint effect: operational readiness is only valuable if it is coordinated across domains (CDSI), and cross-domain coordination only produces resilience if crews are genuinely trained through real operations (ORM).

Finnish baseline estimate (2026)

Component	Estimated value	Basis
C2-CI	≈ 0.66	DRD-03 estimate; Decision Lag and RC as weaknesses
MRI (R_eff)	≈ 0.24	E≈0.35, D≈0.40, M≈0.20 → √(0.35·0.40)·0.20
ORM	≈ 0.38	~30 real tasks / (~30 + ~50 exercises)
CDSI	≈ 0.20	Ad hoc coordination only, no common protocol
DRI	≈ 0.066	0.66 · 0.24 · √(0.38 · 0.20) = 0.066

Norway reference (2026)

Component	Estimated value
C2-CI	≈ 0.80 (integrated command, high AQ)
MRI	≈ 0.52 (E≈0.65, D≈0.65, M≈0.80)
ORM	≈ 0.95 (~1000 real / ~1050 total)
CDSI	≈ 0.90 (integrated NAWSARH model)
DRI	≈ 0.37 — 5.6× Finland's baseline

§ 03

Investment Sensitivity: Which Component Yields Highest DRI Gain?

Marginal DRI gain from +0.1 increase in each component (from Finnish baseline):

Component +0.1	New DRI	ΔDR I	Interpretation
C2-CI: 0.66 → 0.76	0.076	+0.010	Moderate gain
MRI: 0.24 → 0.34	0.094	+0.028	High gain (R-layer investment)
ORM: 0.38 → 0.48	0.074	+0.008	Low-moderate alone…
CDSI: 0.20 → 0.30	0.081	+0.015	…but ORM+CDSI together:
ORM+CDSI: both +0.3	0.130	+0.064	Highest combined gain

Key finding: ORM and CDSI are individually modest but jointly transformative — because they multiply. Raising both by 0.3 (achievable through the CN-015 implementation plan by 2028) produces a larger DRI gain than any single static infrastructure investment. This is the "strategic flywheel": real operations build readiness, readiness enables integration, integration enables more real operations.

§ 04

DRI Trajectory 2026–2030

Year	C2-CI	MRI	ORM	CDSI	DRI
2026 (baseline)	0.66	0.24	0.38	0.20	0.066
2027 (ohjausryhmä + pilotti)	0.68	0.28	0.55	0.45	0.107
2028 (NH90-kaksoisrooli)	0.70	0.35	0.70	0.60	0.161
2029 (HEMS-laajennus)	0.72	0.44	0.82	0.75	0.231
2030 (täysi integraatio)	0.75	0.52	0.90	0.90	0.296
Norway 2026 (reference)	0.80	0.52	0.95	0.90	0.370

DRI approximately 4.5× increase from 0.066 to 0.296 through implementation of CN-015 without any new helicopter procurement. The gap with Norway narrows from 5.6× to 1.25×.

§ 05

Limitations and Calibration Notes

All component estimates are proxy-based. DRI v1.0 is a diagnostic framework, not a precision instrument. Values should be treated as order-of-magnitude indicators.
C2-CI estimates draw on DRD-03's qualitative assessment; empirical calibration requires structured droneincident and exercise data.
ORM calculation requires reliable logging of actual vs. exercise flight hours — this data is not currently published in a form suitable for DRI calculation.
CDSI is the most subjective component; it will benefit from the CN-015 ohjausryhmä process producing structured assessments of inter-agency coordination quality.

DRD-03 · C2-CI Index · supplements/

DRD-06 · C2-CI Nonlinear Dynamics · supplements/

DRD-08 · DAGRA — R-layer (E, D, M) · supplements/

CN-014 · Distributed Helicopter Resilience · papers/

CN-015 · Implementation Plan 2026–2030 (ORM/CDSI targets) · papers/

CN-016 · HEMS Coverage Analysis · papers/